Air Forces face an urgent set of complex and often contradictory imperatives and risk factors. Ukraine has survived the Russian onslaught through 2025, but its Armed Forces are more overstretched than ever, and Russia has intensified its long-range bombardment campaign. Russia has taken vast losses, and its forces are largely fixed in the current campaign. However, Russian military output continues to surge and its armed forces are larger and, in some ways, are more capable than they were in 2022. Faced with a declining security situation and complex transatlantic geopolitical situation, European nations are rapidly increasing defence spending and many air forces are planning for significant growth. At the same time, deliveries will take years and the pressing need to keep Ukrainian forces supplied further contributes to the uncomfortable hollowness of many current NATO inventories and force structures. All of this means that credible, demonstrable air power is more vital than ever to ensuring deterrence and, if necessary, the ability to successfully defend NATO territory.

In this context, procurement and force structure decisions are also filled with urgent contradictions for policy makers and leaders to navigate. Many are convinced that the future of combat air capabilities lies in uncrewed systems with high levels of AI-enabled in-flight autonomy. The United States is moving forwards with its first CCAs for testing as embedded assets within crewed fighter wings; and there are multiple European programmes underway to acquire CCA capabilities from existing aerospace primes and newer AI-focused technology firms. On the other hand, orders for existing crewed fighter aircraft are pouring in across NATO nations, and several crewed next-generation combat aircraft programmes are well underway. Adversaries seem to agree that crewed combat aircraft will remain vital for at least one more generation. Orders and deliveries since 2022 of new fighters and bombers for the Russian VKS outstrip the significant losses inflicted by Ukraine. China is now producing more than 120 J-20A/S stealth fighters per year, alongside around 100 advanced J-16 ‘Flanker’ fighters. This prodigious fighter output comes alongside large-scale investment in UCAVs, CCAs, modern AWACS, EW aircraft and crewed sixth generation combat aircraft.